Your comprehensive race day forecasting
If you think running the marathon is hard, try forecasting for New England! We've gone from 40 degrees and rain and headwinds to the mid 50s with thunder and the potential for tailwinds. On top of that per the MVP of Weather Strider, Chris Rozoff, even the European and US models are not in agreement. Why, you might ask, is this happening? It's all because of a low pressure system that will be hovering over the area, and the question is whether it goes a bit north, or a bit south. Here's why it matters. If the low pressure system goes north of Boston, there will be warm/moist, unstable air from the mid-Atlantic region. That means ran, humidity, temperatures in the mid to upper 50s, with tailwinds from the WSW. But if it stays a bit south, that will mean east winds, and cooler temps in the 40s.
The only constant? Rain, and a rumble of thunder. I'm not going to go as far as calling these thunderstorms; they will be more like thundershowers, with cloud-to-cloud lightning, but there's always a potential if the conditions are right for lightning to reach the ground. And if that's a real possibility the night before, there's a ever-so-slight chance the BAA will cancel the marathon and move it to the following year. Can you imagine, for example, having to contain thousands of people in Athlete's village, inside tents near metal fences on rain-soaked ground? Delaying the race would be costly and a logistical nightmare, but keeping participants in a wide open area where electricity could have a 'field day' would be dangerous. So back to the forecast, and what to wear. At this point, there will be rain showers with headwinds at the start, with occasional heavy rain mixed in, but as the front moves north (I expect sometime around noon) you may hear a rumble of thunder. The good news? Tailwinds will also arrive, so waves 2 and 3, this could be a blessing for you! You should be fine with a singlet/short sleve shirt and shorts. Wear a garbage bag to the start line to keep dry, but with the humidity and warmth, the rain/wind should even things out for perfect running temps. The bottom line: 50 at the start, 54 at the finish (58 to 64 for waves 2/3/4) east winds at 10 mph until noon, then WSW at 10 MPH showers for most of the race, with brief heavy rain. Check this page for updates going forward! Also, I'll be in wave 1/8 so feel free to say hello to the Weather Strider! UPDATE 11:36 EST: weather may be warming into the mid 60's after noon. Looks like the warm front will be north, which equals thunder, rain, and maybe some tailwinds for those running later. I'll continue to update up until race day!
2 Comments
Luke
4/11/2019 08:05:29 pm
I’m also in 1/8. I’m making my first attempt tat 2:59 and I greatly appreciate the detailed forecast. As the the race gets closer and accuracy improves will you continue to update?
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Chris Rozoff and Jesse Sweeney, content contributors.Chris is the expert meteorologist and MVP. Jesse is someone who watched the weather channel a lot as a child and breaks it down for the masses. Chris runs ultras. Jesse runs road and ultras. Archives
April 2019
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