Your comprehensive race day forecasting
These are the notorious words I and many others wind up uttering at mile 10 of the best and most prestigious marathon in the world. Whether it's failing to train enough, or going out too hard in the first part of the mostly downhill portion of the race, but more often than not, it's the weather. It's always a major factor. You can count on picking TWO of these: Perfect temperatures Massive headwinds Hypothermia Hyperthermia Soaking cold rain Brutal humidity That being said, the best expectation is not only to expect the unexpected, but to expect that which you did not train for. Did you have a warm, reasonably mild winter? Boston will be cold and rainy. Did you have a terribly cold winter with snow? Boston will end up being warm or even hot, with full sun. Whatever you prepared for won't be offered. And if you have ideal whether, you'll be recovering from an injury. This year should be no exception. The models are predicting a warmer than average April in the Northeast. From NOAA: "The highest confidence for above-normal temperatures exists across the Northeast, closest to the forecast position of the anomalous ridge axis. " That's weather-speak for 'prepare to run a low slower due to heat'. So the first question is, what will the forecast be? At this point I would expect 65 at the start, and 75 at the finish in Boston, with 5 to 15 MPH headwinds after mile 21, and some WSW tailwinds for most of the run. The next question is, what can be done about it? Well first, if you're from the plains and midwest, you've had a cold, snowy winter. The BEST thing you can do, no matter what, is start heat training. Overdress in several layers so you're sweating, and try to keep the sweating going all day long. There are plenty of studies to back this up, but all of them say that heat training is beneficial whether or not it's a cold race. It boosts heart rate and blood plasma volume. So even if my forecast turns into a dud, you'll be ready!
5 Comments
So here's a reminder about how these forecasts work. To the extent they remain the same, you can rely on them up until race day. To the extent that they change, check the most recent (top) forecast for your race. For Boston, that could mean changes on race morning as I'm heading for the start line myself. Boston is one of the hardest weather forecasts because of it's proximity to the ocean. A subtle change in wind direction can mean the difference of 10 degrees one way or the other, and the same can happen depending on wind speed and cloud cover. So let's first talk about what we know for sure about Boston: 1. Nothing is certain, even on race morning. In 2012, the forecast temperature on race day was only supposed to be in the upper 60s, but it hit well into the 80s with full sun and the forecast was updated just before the starting gun went off. Luckily the race organizers had already planned for warm weather with showers on the course, but most people raced 30 minutes slower than they had planned. 2. You can expect headwinds in Boston after Boston College. With the exception of 2011 (the tailwind year), there's at least a little bit of a cool ESE wind because of a seabreeze. The likelyhood of a seabreeze is dependent on two factors: (a) how warm it is in Boston compared to the ocean temperature and (b) the strength of any west wind. If winds are light from the west and it's in the 50's or higher, expect headwinds. 3. This is a La Nina year, and if history is a guide, that means temperatures in the mid 40s to 50s. 2007-8 and 2010-11 were the most recent La Nina years, and temperatures were in this range. However, the NOAA outlook shows that there's a high likelyhood for above-normal temperatures. Here's the list from the Boston Marathon website of weather conditions since 2000 (you'll need to scroll down): https://www.baa.org/races/boston-marathon/results/history My prediction is as follows: Partly cloudy. 55 at the start, 67 at the finish, with light west winds until Boston, where we'll be met by a 5 MPH headwind after mile 21. Check back here weekly for more updates, and daily as we get within the 10-day window! |
Chris Rozoff and Jesse Sweeney, content contributors.Chris is the expert meteorologist and MVP. Jesse is someone who watched the weather channel a lot as a child and breaks it down for the masses. Chris runs ultras. Jesse runs road and ultras. Archives
April 2019
Categories |
Proudly powered by Weebly