Your comprehensive race day forecasting
Now that we are within 4 days of Marathon Monday, we're going to break our forecast up into 3 cities, with Hopkinton, Newton and Boston, as our main feature, since that seems to be where conditions have the most impact for runners and fans alike. So the good news it that hypothermia is highly doubtful at this point. The bad news? There could be some cloud to ground lightning on the course, and that COULD mean a race delay or worse - complete cancellation. There's actually recent precedent for this, when just last week race organizers in Texas cancelled a 10k because of lightning fears, and as most of you know, the New York City marathon was cancelled a few years ago because of Hurricane Sandy. While there's nothing posted by the BAA about the issue (perhaps because a lot can change between now and then), I will drop a link about it if there's a statement. In the meantime, just in case, think about a plan B - is it a marathon the following week? Can you do something charitable on Marathon Monday instead of running? Can you cancel your flight or lodging? These are things to consider.
In the meantime, let's talk a little about lightning in the event you're on the course and it gets a bit electric. First, don't stand under a tree or something tall. Second, if you feel your hair on your arms stand up and it's not because you're facing the terrors of Heartbreak Hill, try to find a dry area relative to the rest of the area, and crouch down, covering your ears. Make yourself a small target, but don't sit down. Lightning can strike from the side of an object after it has been hit, or through water below/around you. But most of all, don't worry too much. Direct strikes are rare and you won't likely be the highest object around or the most conductive. Now, onto the race! For all waves, wear a garbage bag or poncho to keep dry before the race starts as it will likely be raining and humid. The warm front I talked about in the last post will be far enough north to usher in tailwinds (hooray!) for all waves of 15 MPH. If 2011 is any guide, you won't feel them much except at the crest of each hill, which is where you'll need them the most. Wave 1: On and off rain showers with some periods of heavy rain, slight chance of a thunderstorm. the temperature should be 58 with 90% humidity at the start. Tailwinds from the SW at 15 mph. Newton should be in the low 60s by the time you arrive, as well as Boston, which should be about 64 degrees. Tailwinds all the way into town. Wave 2: On and off rain showers with some periods of heavy rain, 62 at the start with high humidity. Tailwinds from the SW at 15 mph. Newton should be in the low 60s by the time you arrive, as well as Boston, which should be about 65 degrees. Tailwinds all the way into town. Waves 3/4: 65 at the start with high humidity. There may be a break where there's no rain during your run, but when/if it returns, expect the rain to be heavier with a possibility of lightning. Tailwinds from the SW at 15 mph. Newton should be in the low 60s by the time you arrive, as well as Boston, which should be about 65 degrees. Tailwinds all the way into town. What to wear? Keep it light and drink. You might not notice that you're dehydrated with water all around you, but you're going to sweat more and be hotter. As usual I'll keep you updated on the forecast! UPDATE 8:51AM - the BAA is preparing contingency plans for pulling runners off the course in the event of cloud to ground lightning, but there's no word on cancellation. Typically when runners are pulled off in a race, they are not permitted to re-enter for 30 minutes, so it might be a good idea to bring your own little space blanket. You can buy some on Amazon now, or go to REI. Good luck! UPDATE 12:35PM: Per the BAA, wave 4 will not have a 25 minute waiting period before starting, but will start immediately after wave 3.
1 Comment
4/21/2020 02:39:40 am
There are ways for them to cancel the race, but why would they? I get that you want to cancel it for your personal reasons, but I just do not think that they will buy into that. In my opinion, we all need to try harder in life, especially when it comes to the things that we love. I am really looking forward to watching this race. It is my favorite event of the year, and I want to see them all sorts of stuff.
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Chris Rozoff and Jesse Sweeney, content contributors.Chris is the expert meteorologist and MVP. Jesse is someone who watched the weather channel a lot as a child and breaks it down for the masses. Chris runs ultras. Jesse runs road and ultras. Archives
April 2019
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