Your comprehensive race day forecasting
Most of the forecast models are shaping up within the more predictable 10-day range (although there can of course be variation to these forecasts as they get closer to game day). Right now, depending on which model you look at, there may be light rain/drizzle or mostly sunny skies. The difference will be important. Even in the 50s, full sun can impact your surface temperature and the temperature of surrounding pavement/black top/buildings. Like all cities, Chicago can turn into a heat island. I'll get into this more closer to race day, but Chicago tends to be hotter (and windier) near the end of the course. There are more open spaces, darker road surfaces exposed to the sun, and it's later in the morning when you arrive. To make things worse, crowd support is low to nill in the last 6, when things inevitably start to go wrong. I've always wished that they would reverse the course so that runners could get the crowds and the lower temps/low wind near the end.
Ideal temperatures for a 'perfect' marathon should be in the upper 30s to low 40s, but Chicago looks like it may be close. I'm projecting mid 50s to low 60's at the end, with North winds around 10mph. For those finishing in under 3 hours, you'll still be in the upper 50s. After that, it could feel a bit warm. With a north wind, temperatures will be cooler, but you'll hit a slight headwind in the first 6 miles, a cross from 13 to 18, and a strong headwind in the last 3 or so. Plan accordingly!
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Chris Rozoff and Jesse Sweeney, content contributors.Chris is the expert meteorologist and MVP. Jesse is someone who watched the weather channel a lot as a child and breaks it down for the masses. Chris runs ultras. Jesse runs road and ultras. Archives
April 2019
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