Your comprehensive race day forecasting
These are the notorious words I and many others wind up uttering at mile 10 of the best and most prestigious marathon in the world. Whether it's failing to train enough, or going out too hard in the first part of the mostly downhill portion of the race, but more often than not, it's the weather. It's always a major factor. You can count on picking TWO of these: Perfect temperatures Massive headwinds Hypothermia Hyperthermia Soaking cold rain Brutal humidity That being said, the best expectation is not only to expect the unexpected, but to expect that which you did not train for. Did you have a warm, reasonably mild winter? Boston will be cold and rainy. Did you have a terribly cold winter with snow? Boston will end up being warm or even hot, with full sun. Whatever you prepared for won't be offered. And if you have ideal whether, you'll be recovering from an injury. This year should be no exception. The models are predicting a warmer than average April in the Northeast. From NOAA: "The highest confidence for above-normal temperatures exists across the Northeast, closest to the forecast position of the anomalous ridge axis. " That's weather-speak for 'prepare to run a low slower due to heat'. So the first question is, what will the forecast be? At this point I would expect 65 at the start, and 75 at the finish in Boston, with 5 to 15 MPH headwinds after mile 21, and some WSW tailwinds for most of the run. The next question is, what can be done about it? Well first, if you're from the plains and midwest, you've had a cold, snowy winter. The BEST thing you can do, no matter what, is start heat training. Overdress in several layers so you're sweating, and try to keep the sweating going all day long. There are plenty of studies to back this up, but all of them say that heat training is beneficial whether or not it's a cold race. It boosts heart rate and blood plasma volume. So even if my forecast turns into a dud, you'll be ready!
5 Comments
Ricky
3/21/2019 10:24:40 am
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1/25/2020 03:48:50 am
I want to be a Boston Celtic, that is for sure. I am a person who wants to be the best, and I feel like Boston is the place for me to do it. There are lots of facilities there that can help me improve my game. I am a pretty young athlete, but I already understand what I need to do. I want to go and be a Boston Celtic and prove how much of a dominant player I can be.
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10/28/2022 09:47:36 pm
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Chris Rozoff and Jesse Sweeney, content contributors.Chris is the expert meteorologist and MVP. Jesse is someone who watched the weather channel a lot as a child and breaks it down for the masses. Chris runs ultras. Jesse runs road and ultras. Archives
April 2019
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