Your comprehensive race day forecasting
So here's a reminder about how these forecasts work. To the extent they remain the same, you can rely on them up until race day. To the extent that they change, check the most recent (top) forecast for your race. For Boston, that could mean changes on race morning as I'm heading for the start line myself. Boston is one of the hardest weather forecasts because of it's proximity to the ocean. A subtle change in wind direction can mean the difference of 10 degrees one way or the other, and the same can happen depending on wind speed and cloud cover. So let's first talk about what we know for sure about Boston: 1. Nothing is certain, even on race morning. In 2012, the forecast temperature on race day was only supposed to be in the upper 60s, but it hit well into the 80s with full sun and the forecast was updated just before the starting gun went off. Luckily the race organizers had already planned for warm weather with showers on the course, but most people raced 30 minutes slower than they had planned. 2. You can expect headwinds in Boston after Boston College. With the exception of 2011 (the tailwind year), there's at least a little bit of a cool ESE wind because of a seabreeze. The likelyhood of a seabreeze is dependent on two factors: (a) how warm it is in Boston compared to the ocean temperature and (b) the strength of any west wind. If winds are light from the west and it's in the 50's or higher, expect headwinds. 3. This is a La Nina year, and if history is a guide, that means temperatures in the mid 40s to 50s. 2007-8 and 2010-11 were the most recent La Nina years, and temperatures were in this range. However, the NOAA outlook shows that there's a high likelyhood for above-normal temperatures. Here's the list from the Boston Marathon website of weather conditions since 2000 (you'll need to scroll down): https://www.baa.org/races/boston-marathon/results/history My prediction is as follows: Partly cloudy. 55 at the start, 67 at the finish, with light west winds until Boston, where we'll be met by a 5 MPH headwind after mile 21. Check back here weekly for more updates, and daily as we get within the 10-day window!
5 Comments
Dave C
3/9/2019 12:03:24 pm
I've run Boston the past 5 years in a row, all with weather that wasn't the best for running. If you're prediction is correct, that would be great!
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Dave C
3/9/2019 12:04:59 pm
*your
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3/15/2019 02:26:43 pm
Love this site. Looking forward to your future predictions!
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Chris Rozoff and Jesse Sweeney, content contributors.Chris is the expert meteorologist and MVP. Jesse is someone who watched the weather channel a lot as a child and breaks it down for the masses. Chris runs ultras. Jesse runs road and ultras. Archives
April 2019
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